--- title: "Seasonal outlook: November 2026 to January 2027" description: Warmer days and nights are likely from November 2026 to January 2027. What the forecasts and climate drivers mean for Southern Highlands grazing decisions. image: https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/hubfs/AI-Generated%20Media/Images/Farmer%20Watching%20Southern%20Highlands%20Summer%20Storm.png --- [Skip to the main content.](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/seasonal-outlook-november-2026-to-january-2027#main-content) [![HAS](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/hubfs/Highland%20Ag%20Solutions-Logo.svg "HAS")](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/home) [![HAS](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/hubfs/Highland%20Ag%20Solutions-Logo.svg "HAS")](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/home) - [Services](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/services) - [About us](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/about-us) - [Contact us](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/contact-highlands-ag-solutions) Search Toggle Menu Search Toggle Menu - [Services](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/services) - [About us](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/about-us) - [Contact us](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/contact-highlands-ag-solutions) [Facebook](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/seasonal-outlook-november-2026-to-january-2027#highlands_ag_solutions) [Instagram](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/seasonal-outlook-november-2026-to-january-2027#highlands_ag_solutions) [Linkedin](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/seasonal-outlook-november-2026-to-january-2027#highlands_ag_solutions) 4 min read # Seasonal outlook: November 2026 to January 2027 [Will Black](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/author/will-black) : Published November 5, 2026 [Latest posts](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/tag/latest-posts) ![Seasonal outlook: November 2026 to January 2027](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/hs-fs/hubfs/AI-Generated%20Media/Images/Farmer%20Watching%20Southern%20Highlands%20Summer%20Storm.png?width=1536&height=1024&name=Farmer%20Watching%20Southern%20Highlands%20Summer%20Storm.png) *Climate outlook for the Southern Highlands* *Updated 26 October 2026 | Forecast basis: Bureau of Meteorology, 22 October 2026* For November 2026 to January 2027, the Bureau of Meteorology outlook favours above-average daytime and overnight temperatures across much of Australia, with probabilities above 80%. \[1\] For Southern Highlands producers, the practical approach is to prepare for warmer conditions while keeping grazing, feed and fertiliser decisions responsive to actual soil moisture and pasture growth. [Download this article (PDF)](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/hubfs/261101%20HAS%20Article%20-%20Seasonal%20Outlook%20November%2026%20to%20January%2027.pdf) ## 1. What the forecasts are telling us The clearest NSW signal for above-average rainfall is in the north-east, with the eastern wet signal strengthening in December. This should not be interpreted as a forecast of wetter conditions for the Southern Highlands. \[1\] | Forecast element | Meaning for local planning | | --- | --- | | **Temperature** | NSW guidance favours warmer days and nights. Prepare for heat and increased water demand. \[2\] | | **Rainfall** | Rainfall probabilities vary widely across NSW. Check local guidance before applying the north-east wet signal to the Southern Highlands. \[2\] | | **Timing** | A seasonal rainfall total does not specify the dates, spacing or intensity of useful rain. | ## 2. Key climate drivers and what is behind the outlook Understanding the drivers behind a seasonal forecast helps producers assess how much weight to place on it, and how quickly the picture might change. | Driver | Current status | Significance for Southern Highlands | | --- | --- | --- | | **ENSO – La Niña** | La Niña is not the current climate driver; El Niño is established. \[1\] | Producers should not assume the wetter conditions commonly associated with La Niña will support summer pasture growth. | | **ENSO – El Niño** | A strong event is underway, forecast to peak around November–December. \[1\] | El Niño can favour warmer, drier conditions in eastern Australia, but does not guarantee local drought. Use the combined seasonal outlook rather than this driver alone. | | **Indian Ocean Dipole** | Currently neutral, with positive development possible into early summer. Strength and duration remain uncertain. \[1\] | A positive IOD can reinforce reduced spring rainfall across south-eastern Australia. Monitor its development alongside local soil moisture and updated forecasts. | | **Southern Annular Mode** | Changes over weeks; one phase cannot reliably describe the whole November–January period. \[4\] | Positive summer phases can favour moist onshore winds and eastern rainfall. Negative phases can reduce rainfall in eastern Australia. These shifts can affect individual rainfall opportunities. | **The practical implication** Retain flexibility. Protect pasture residuals, maintain feed and water reserves, and adjust inputs to measured soil moisture and growth. Climate drivers provide context; they do not determine rainfall on an individual property. ## 3. Farm management implications The following priorities apply to Southern Highlands grazing and pasture systems. Use measured feed, soil moisture and stock condition to decide when to act; the seasonal outlook provides context for those decisions. ### Protect perennial pastures and groundcover Match grazing pressure to the feed actually available. NSW grazing guidance emphasises balancing livestock demand with pasture supply and protecting groundcover. \[5\] Set residual targets for each pasture type with your agronomist, and lengthen recovery periods as growth slows. - Avoid repeated close grazing of stressed perennial paddocks; move stock before residual targets are breached. - Use paddock assessments to distinguish green growth from dry standing material and identify areas needing a spell. - If rain produces a short flush, reassess recovery before increasing stock pressure. ### Capture spring surplus without creating a summer gap Review the whole feed budget before closing paddocks for conservation. Allow for stock requirements, likely pasture decline and the feed needed until the next reliable growth period. A large standing bulk should not automatically be counted as high-quality feed. - Select hay or silage paddocks against feed quality, access, contractor availability and suitable weather windows. - Feed-test conserved fodder and budget it against the needs of priority stock. - Retain accessible grazing and avoid cutting so low that pasture recovery is compromised. ### Review feed budgets and act at agreed triggers Build a base plan using feed on hand, then test a scenario in which useful follow-up rain does not arrive. Include purchased feed cost, storage, feeding capacity and the stock classes that should receive priority. - Set review dates and pasture or body-condition triggers for supplementary feeding and stock sales. - Check feed sourcing and delivery lead times before reserves become tight. - Discuss weaning and stock trading options early enough to retain practical choices. ### Secure water and prepare for hot weather Audit both water quantity and delivery. Stored water is only useful if pumps, pipes and troughs can supply the stock using each paddock. Include evaporation, leakage and a reserve when reviewing supply. - Check trough flow, cleanliness, access and backup supply before forecast hot spells. - Allocate paddocks with suitable shade and reliable water to vulnerable stock. - Schedule mustering, transport and other handling for cooler conditions where practicable. ### Stage summer forage and fertiliser commitments Only commit to summer forage where species, sowing window, soil temperature and stored moisture suit the site. Include the effect of establishment on the existing feed budget and the consequences of poor follow-up rain. - Confirm weed control and seedbed readiness before sowing; stage areas where moisture is marginal. - Use soil tests and a realistic growth target to guide fertiliser inputs. - For nitrogen, check soil moisture and the short-range rainfall forecast; avoid applications to stressed pasture or ahead of runoff risk. ## 4. A practical plan for November to January These are management checkpoints, not separate monthly weather forecasts. Bring reviews forward if growth, water supply or livestock condition changes quickly. | Month | Checkpoints | | --- | --- | | **November** | Measure the feed base and decide how much spring surplus can safely be conserved. Confirm contractor arrangements, inspect water infrastructure and identify paddocks that need recovery. Set stocking and feeding triggers while there is time to organise alternatives. | | **December** | Recalculate the feed budget after conservation and any significant rainfall. Check whether rain has replenished the root zone or simply produced a brief surface response. Review pasture quality, water delivery and shade before committing stock to their summer paddocks. | | **January** | Review remaining feed and water against the time until the next reliable growth period. Act on agreed triggers if pasture cover or stock condition is declining. Protect the perennial base and identify soil testing, weed control and paddock preparation needed for autumn. | ## 5. Where forecast confidence is lower **Local rainfall:** The national summary does not establish a precise Southern Highlands rainfall probability. Elevation, exposure and individual weather systems matter. Check the BoM location forecast alongside measured rainfall and soil moisture on your property. \[1, 2\] **Rainfall timing:** Even a favourable seasonal total can include long dry intervals. Heavy rain can also deliver less usable pasture moisture than expected where runoff is high. Keep operational decisions tied to short-range forecasts and paddock conditions. **Forecast updates:** Climate drivers and model guidance can change. Review the outlook regularly and after material updates; avoid locking the entire summer program to one issue date. **Key takeaways** - Protect pasture residuals and keep stocking decisions aligned with measured feed supply. - Conserve surplus strategically, while retaining a workable summer grazing and feed reserve. - Set clear action points for feeding, stock numbers and water supply. - Commit sowing and fertiliser progressively as moisture and growth justify the investment. **How Highlands Ag Solutions can help** HAS can assist with seasonal grazing and feed budgets, pasture and forage planning, soil testing and interpretation, and fertiliser programs matched to paddock conditions. Speak with your HAS agronomist to review summer priorities and prepare for autumn. **[Book a free on-farm consultation →](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/contact-highlands-ag-solutions)** ### Sources and forecast dates Forecast information checked 26 October 2026. Farm management actions are practical guidance to adapt to each property. 1. Bureau of Meteorology – long-range forecast, issued 22 October 2026 2. NSW DPIRD – NSW outlook November 2026 to January 2027, BoM issue 8 October 3. World Meteorological Organization – global seasonal update, 21 October 2026 4. Bureau of Meteorology – Southern Annular Mode 5. NSW Government – grazing management systems - [Tweet](https://twitter.com/share) - [Privacy Policy](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/privacy-highlands-ag-solutions-4ab17342-635a-4dfa-ab52-8dacaf65a12) - [Terms & Conditions](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/terms-conditions) Don't miss out Don't miss out Keep up to date with our latest on-farm research, agronomic advice, seasonal insights, and farm management tips. Subscribe to the Highlands Ag Solutions newsletter today. Sign up today Sign up today [![Highland Ag Solutions-Logo](https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/hubfs/Highland%20Ag%20Solutions-Logo.svg)](https://www.highlandsolutions.com.au) © 2026 Highlands Ag Solutions Pty Ltd [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61572961757588)[Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/highlands_ag_solutions)[Linkedin](https://www.linkedin.com/company/highlands-ag-solutions) Return to top ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Will Black", "url" : "https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/author/will-black" }, "dateModified" : "2026-11-05T05:04:31.773Z", "datePublished" : "2026-11-05T05:04:31.000Z", "headline" : "Seasonal outlook: November 2026 to January 2027", "image" : [ "https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/hubfs/AI-Generated%20Media/Images/Farmer%20Watching%20Southern%20Highlands%20Summer%20Storm.png" ], "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/seasonal-outlook-november-2026-to-january-2027", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/hubfs/Highland%20Ag%20Solutions-Logo.svg" }, "name" : "Highlands Ag Solutions" } } ``` ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : [ { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Will Black", "url" : "https://www.highlandsagsolutions.com.au/the-farm-shed/author/will-black" } ], "dateModified" : "2026-11-05T05:04:31Z", "datePublished" : "2026-11-05T05:04:31Z", "description" : "Warmer days and nights are likely from November 2026 to January 2027. 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